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This Friday (May 7th 2010) Barcelona will face CSKA at 18:00 CET and Olympiakos will face Partizan at 21:00 CET in the semifinals. The winners will qualify for the Final this Sunday.

According to the bookmakers, Barcelona and Olympiakos should be the teams to advance to the final and the Spanish team are the favorites to win it.
However, we should keep in mind that CSKA are the most experienced team of the four, as they have played in 4 consecutive Euroleague final-four Finals, of which they’ve won 2 and lost the other 2 by just two points each.

In addition, Partizan may indeed be this season’s apocalypse, however let’s not forget the fact that they’ve already beaten Olympiakos once during the first group stage this season, while during the second group stage they beat both Barcelona and the 2009 winners Panathinaikos, with the latter being eliminated from the competition, as they finished in 3rd place of group E. In game 1 of the quarterfinals, Partizan came from 21 points behind to beat Maccabi Tel Aviv in Israel, where most teams usually suffer from the explosive atmosphere. This proves that they are capable of doing anything, plus the lack of pressure gives them a great advantage, at least in terms of team moral.

Olympiakos have some of the most experienced players in their squad. Theo Papaloukas will be competing in his 8th consecutive Final-Four, an amazing achievement. Other key players are Milos Teodosic, Sofo Schortsianitis, Linas Kleiza and Joss Childress. Their scoring abilities have played a significant role in some major wins, like the one agains Caja Laboral away from home in the opening and decisive game of Group H.

And then there’s Barcelona. A team that left nothing standing this season as they sweeped the first group stage by a 10-0 record and got 1st place and home advantage with ease in the second group stage. Rivals Real Madrid were no match for them in the quarterfinals. Their roster includes Rubio, Lakovic, Basile, Grimau, Vazquez and of course Juan Carlos Navarro. They’ve already beaten more than once some very good teams this season, such as Siena and Panathinaikos, but this will be the first time they’ll come across CSKA and possibly Olympiakos and let’s not forget that the Russians were the winners of last season’s semifinal against Barcelona.

 

In terms of betting, I would predict a narrow win for Olympiakos, so odds on Partizan’s 7.5 points handicap may have some value (around 2.00 at the moment) or you could even risk the winning margin 1-5 points for Olympiakos at 4.60 or even Partizan 1-5 at 6.30.

CSKA may be the most experienced team, however Barcelona are playing at their own level and I don’t think the Russians will be able to keep up with them, however we rarely see comfortable wins in the semifinals so I won’t risk any money on handicaps here.

As for the winner, if the final is between Barcelona and Olympiakos it should be quite easy for the Spanish team to score from outside the key against one of the poorest defenses in Europe. The Greeks will have a much better chance against CSKA. Odds on Partizan to win it are ridiculously high, (around 17.00) and it’s not a bad way to earn a lot by risking a few, if you believe in small miracles.

 

May 7, 18:00 CET	Regal FCB vs. CSKA Moscow
May 7, 21:00 CET	Partizan vs. Olympiacos
May 9, 18:00 CET	Partizan vs. CSKA Moscow
May 9, 21:00 CET	Regal FCB vs. Olympiacos